On October 15, the World Steel Association released the latest version of short-term global steel demand forecast for 2020 and 2021. Although the forecast still indicates a decrease in global steel demand in 2020, the decline is far smaller than previously expected.
The World Steel Association predicts that the global steel demand will shrink by 2.4% to 1.725 billion tons in 2020 due to the COVID-19; The global steel demand will recover to 1.795 billion tons in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 4.1%. Due to China's strong recovery, the decline in global steel demand this year will decrease slightly. It can be predicted that after the closure measures against the COVID-19 are completed, the demand for steel in other countries in the world will also exceed previous expectations. Nevertheless, in 2020, both developed and developing economies will experience a significant contraction in steel demand, which will not partially recover until 2021.
The prediction suggests that although there has been a rebound in the epidemic in multiple countries and regions around the world, there will be no further nationwide lockdown measures. On the contrary, by selectively and purposefully taking some epidemic prevention measures, the rebound of the epidemic can be effectively curbed.
Al Remeithi, Chairman of the Market Research Committee of the World Steel Association, said: In April of this year, the global steel industry has recovered from the lowest point in steel demand and has been showing a recovery trend since mid May. However, due to the different industrial structures and differentiated epidemic prevention and economic support measures adopted by various countries around the world, the recovery rate of global steel and iron demand is not balanced. Among them, China has shown surprising resilience, leading to a significant increase in global steel demand growth expectations in 2020 Adjust. In other countries around the world, steel demand will still sharply shrink. The COVID-19 has accelerated the development of some global trends, which are gradually changing the steel and downstream industries, and the long-term impact is far greater than the short-term impact. "
Source: China Metallurgical Daily